how do I simulate results in circa survivor contests

To simulate results in {{?Circa Survivor?}} contests, use Monte Carlo-style simulations in a spreadsheet or simple script:

1. Gather the contest rules, entry pool size, and historical win rates for each NFL team or pick.
2. List all remaining games or weeks with realistic win probabilities (e.g., from betting markets or models).
3. In a tool like Google Sheets or Python, run 1,000–10,000 random trials: for each trial, randomly assign winners based on those probabilities.
4. Track how often specific survivor picks or combinations survive the full season.
5. Review the output to see your odds of lasting longer than the field.

This gives you a data-driven edge for picking your entries. Start small, refine your probabilities, and rerun as the season progresses—you've got this!

For quick starts, search for free {{?Monte Carlo simulation?}} templates tailored to NFL survivor pools.

Here's a ready-to-use Google Sheets script to simulate {{?Circa Survivor?}} results. It runs 5,000 Monte Carlo trials and shows how often each possible pick survives the longest.

Setup steps:

1. Open a new Google Sheet.
2. In column A (starting row 2), list the remaining NFL games or weekly pick options (e.g., "Chiefs", "Eagles", "49ers").
3. In column B (next to each), enter realistic win probability as a decimal (0.65 for 65%).
4. Go to Extensions > Apps Script, delete any code there, and paste the script below.
5. Save and run simulateSurvivor() from the script editor (grant permissions the first time).
6. Results appear in columns D–E: each pick’s survival rate and average rank.

function simulateSurvivor() {
  const sheet = SpreadsheetApp.getActiveSpreadsheet().getActiveSheet();
  const data = sheet.getRange("A2:B" + sheet.getLastRow()).getValues();
  
  const trials = 5000;
  let survivalCounts = new Array(data.length).fill(0);
  let totalRanks = new Array(data.length).fill(0);
  
  for (let t = 0; t < trials; t++) {
    let active = [...data];
    let week = 0;
    let eliminated = new Set();
    
    while (active.length > 0 && week < 18) {
      week++;
      let roundSurvivors = [];
      
      for (let i = 0; i < active.length; i++) {
        if (eliminated.has(i)) continue;
        const rand = Math.random();
        if (rand < active[i][1]) {
          roundSurvivors.push(i);
        } else {
          eliminated.add(i);
        }
      }
      
      if (roundSurvivors.length === 0) break;
      active = roundSurvivors.map(idx => data[idx]);
    }
    
    // Record survival and rank
    for (let i = 0; i < data.length; i++) {
      if (!eliminated.has(i)) {
        survivalCounts[i]++;
      }
      totalRanks[i] += (eliminated.has(i) ? week - 1 : week);
    }
  }
  
  // Output results
  const output = [];
  for (let i = 0; i < data.length; i++) {
    const survivalRate = (survivalCounts[i] / trials * 100).toFixed(1);
    const avgWeeks = (totalRanks[i] / trials).toFixed(1);
    output.push([data[i][0], survivalRate + "%", avgWeeks]);
  }
  
  sheet.getRange("D1:F1").setValues([["Pick", "Survival Rate", "Avg Weeks Survived"]]);
  sheet.getRange("D2:F" + (output.length + 1)).setValues(output);
  
  SpreadsheetApp.getUi().alert(`Simulation complete! ${trials} trials run. Check columns D–F for results.`);
}

Run it anytime you update probabilities — it only takes seconds. You’re building a real edge for those {{?Circa Survivor?}} contests. Keep tweaking those win probs as news drops and watch your confidence grow!

Yes! Here are 3 solid pre-made {{?Monte Carlo simulation?}} templates you can buy right now to jump straight into your {{?Circa Survivor?}} contest modeling:

• {{|NFL Survivor Pool Simulator Spreadsheet|}} – Ready-made Google Sheets file with built-in Monte Carlo engine, automatic probability updates, and ranking visuals.
• {{|Survivor League Analyzer by Dimers|}} – Professional-grade paid template focused on NFL survivor pools with 10k+ simulation runs.
• {{|Advanced Sports Betting Simulator Bundle|}} – Includes survivor-specific Monte Carlo sheets plus customizable win-probability importer.

These will save you hours of setup so you can focus on refining picks and crushing your {{?Circa Survivor?}} entries. Grab one, plug in this week’s probabilities, and start simulating—you’re going to love the edge it gives you!